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China’s Dollar Trap

China’s Dollar Trap

Last Tuesday, Brazil, Russia, India, and China–the so-called BRIC nations–met in Yekaterinburg, Russia, for what was supposed to be an anti-American gabfest. The main agenda item for the first formal meeting of the four largest developing economies was the future of the dollar.

November Non-Farm Payrolls Could Hit 400k

November Non-Farm Payrolls Could Hit 400k

The US economy has officially entered a recession and the labor market numbers that are due on Friday will confirm that. Not only do we expect the US economy to report its eleventh consecutive month of job losses but the job losses will probably be the largest in 26 years. In 2001, there [...]

Risk of 8% Unemployment, Auto Makers Seek Bailout

Risk of 8% Unemployment, Auto Makers Seek Bailout

Half a million jobs were lost in the US economy over the past 2 months, driving the unemployment rate to a 14 year high. Even though October non-farm payrolls fell short of our -300k expectation, the 240k drop and the revision from -159k to -284k for the month of September is just as pessimistic. The US labor market is in a recession and the latest numbers confirm that. However equities actually rallied on the bearish report as investors interpreted the data to mean that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50bp next month. The sell-off in the US dollar against every major currency pair except for the Japanese Yen indicates that it is the rally in equities that is driving currencies. Trading will be interesting in the week ahead with the lack of any major US economic data until Thursday. Retail sales are due for release on Friday and the expectations of a sharp decline in consumer spending could send investors back into the US dollar and Japanese Yen.

Does Paulson’s TARP = TRAP?

Does Paulson’s TARP = TRAP?

For the second day in a row, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and US Treasury Secretary Paulson pleaded to the power players of Washington to pass their request for $700 Billion to implement their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). However if we move the letters around a bit, TARP becomes TRAP and that is [...]

Resolution Trust Corp: What is it and Will it Help the Markets?

Resolution Trust Corp:  What is it and Will it Help the Markets?

Over the past few days, the markets have shrugged off the government’s bailout of AIG and a flush of liquidity from central banks around the world. No matter what the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury tried to do, they failed to please the markets. However in the last few hours of trading [...]

Lehman’s Latest Developments Spell Trouble for Carry Trades and US Dollar

Lehman’s Latest Developments Spell Trouble for Carry Trades and US Dollar

The US dollar dropped like a rock at the open of the Asian trading session on Sunday. It has been a long weekend for US government officials and the leaders of Wall Street Banks. Bank of America and Barclays pulled out talks to buy Lehman Brothers as the government refused to provide sufficient funding. [...]

Recent Mergers and Acquisitions Status Report

Recent Mergers and Acquisitions Status Report

$ Greenfield Online, Inc (SRVY) - Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
September 12, 2008 (10:40a) - Tender Offer Statement Filed
MSFT filed the initial tender offer statement and offer to purchase for this transaction with the SEC on September 11, 2008.
The current tender offer expiration date is Wednesday, October 8, 2008.
The regulatory matters section of the statement notes the [...]

How Does the Fannie / Freddie Announcement Impact the FX Market?

How Does the Fannie / Freddie Announcement Impact the FX Market?

This weekend, the US government announced that they have seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, also known as the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs). The sharp rally in the Asian and European stock markets as well as the move in Dow futures suggest that we will see similar strength in US stocks. [...]

A Sobering Dose of Reality

A Sobering Dose of Reality

In the 1980’s, the Ford Motor Company used the slogan “Quality is Job #1”. This was helpful in their campaign to compete with their Japanese counterparts who were perceived to have higher quality automobiles. It would seem, based on recent trends in the employment market that government is now Job #1. This morning’s employment situation [...]

Non-farm Payrolls Falls -84K, Unemployment Rate Hits 5 Year High, Revisions Are Ugly!

Non-farm Payrolls Falls -84K, Unemployment Rate Hits 5 Year High, Revisions Are Ugly!

There is no question that the US labor market is deteriorating. Non-farm payrolls fell by -84k last month, driving the unemployment rate to a 5 yeer high of 6.1 percent. However what made FX traders really sell the dollar was the jump in the unemployment rate and the revisions. The US government [...]